1 thought on “The ascendant Chinese gold market”

  1. Zheng Lianghao
    In the past ten years, with the prosperity of the world economy, the international gold market has entered the fast track of development. Gold demand and consumption records have repeatedly reached high. The highest point of 2011 has been soared to $ 1921/ounce. The 2011 "Golden Demand Trends Report" released by the World Gold Association shows that the global gold demand in 2011 reached 4067.1 tons, and the value of more than $ 200 billion for the first time, of which the gold jewelry demand was 1962.9 tons, the value reached 99.2 billion U.S. dollars, a record high of the year, a record high (pictured in the picture 1, Figure 2). The latest report shows that even in the current severe global economic situation, the gold demand in the first three quarters of 2012 still reached 3185 tons, worth nearly 170 billion US dollars. The ancient metal of gold is dazzling glory, becoming the focus of people's eyes.
    Figure 1 2009 ~ 2011 Global Gold Demand
    Data Source: Thomson Reuters GFMS, WGC
    Figure 2 2009 ~ 2011 Global Jewelry Jewelry Gold Demand n Data Source: Thomson Reuters GFMS, LBMA, WGC
    1. Xijin Eastward Movement
    As the scale continues to expand, the supply and demand structure of the gold market is also constantly evolving. There is a common misunderstanding in the society that the price of gold is mainly determined by Western institutional investors. In the short term, in terms of the scale of a single transaction at the institutional level, this view may sometimes be established. But in the middle and long term, it is just one of the same and important promotion factors. Similarly, people often pay attention to investment needs, and often ignore the fact that gold jewelry is always the main source of gold demand. In addition, whether it is the purchase of gold jewelry, central bank activities or investment demand, the fundamentals of the gold market have reflected in North America and Europe in the past. In the past 40 years, the attention points have greatly deviated from these two centers. The rise of high -growth economies such as BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India and China) has weakened the influence of the West. This transformation is undoubtedly very prominent in the gold market. As an important golden producer, the total gold output of China, Russia, and Brazil in 2011 reached 650 tons, accounting for 1/5 of the global total output. As the world's largest gold consumer, India and China, the annual gold demand is more than 1,500 tons. From the perspective of market conditions, China, India, and Brazil have all owns exchanges for trading precious metals and futures, and have received worldwide attention in a short period of time, and Russia is also stepping up the launch of the spot and derivative transactions of precious metals. In addition, the official gold reserves of the BRICS Four Kingdoms have also increased year by year. As of 2011, the total gold reserves of the four countries reached 2528.6 tons, of which China was 1054 tons, Russia was 883 tons, India was 558 tons, and Brazil was 33.6 tons.
    The research from the World Gold Association shows that in the past 40 years, gold supply has gone geographically from more concentrated to scattered, especially gold ore production (Figure 3). The production of gold ore in the supply has decreased, and the gap is filled by regeneration gold. In addition, due to the more convenient and lower cost in emerging markets, the proportion of recycled gold supply from emerging markets is increasing.
    FIG. 3 Gold ore output distribution (divided by region)
    Data Source: Townon Reuters gfms, WGC
    , on the other hand, the geographical focus of gold demand is obviously shifted. By reviewing the demand for each 10 years since the price of gold prices and the US dollar, it is not difficult to find that the demand for gold has shifted from North America and Europe to India's secondary continent and East Asia (Figure 4). In 1970, demand in North America and Europe accounted for 47%of global demand, rose to 68%in 1980, and fell to 27%in 2010. The share of India and East Asia rose from 35%in 1970 to 58%in 2010.
    Figure 4 Gold demand distribution (divided by region)
    Data Source: Bloomberg, LBMA, Thomson Reuters GFMS, WGC
    Investment again becomes an important part of demand (Figure 5), 2010 Investment demand accounts for 38%of total demand (excluding central bank purchases). The investment demand for investment in North America and Europe fell from 74%in 1980 to 45%in 2010. Among the remaining investment demand, India's secondary continent and East Asia accounted for a large part. One of the fast investment markets. However, in the 2008 financial crisis, the trend of gold demand in Europe once again looked up and became an important participant in the gold investment market again.
    FIG. 5 Investment demand distribution (divided by region)
    Data Source: Townon Reuters gfms, WGC
    Gold jewelry demand is the main force of "Xijin East". The demand for gold jewelry in North America and Europe fell from 44%in 1970 to 14%in 2010. At the same time, the demand for gold jewelry in India and the Far East increased from 36%in 1970 to 66%in 2010 (Figure Figure 6). Even if it is currently facing a severe economic environment, the demand for gold or jewelry in India and China in the third quarter of 2012 still accounts for 57%of the world.
    FIG. 6 Gold decoration needs distribution (divided by region)
    Data Source: Townon Reuters gfms, WGC
    2. Physical, China undoubtedly possess a pivotal position in the international gold market. The rapid development of the national economy has reduced the demand for exports of the main market, while domestic consumer demand continues to increase. China's Gold Market has maintained rapid development since its market -oriented reform in 2002, and has gone through the "Golden Ten Years". Since 2007, China has replaced South Africa for five consecutive years to become the world's largest gold producer, with an output of over 300 tons in 2011. In the second half of 2011, China became the first single market with Golden Globe and gold jewelry. In the third quarter of 2012, China's gold demand reached 176.8 tons, second only to India, of which gold jewelry demand was 123.8 tons, accounting for about 27%of global gold jewelry demand (Figure 7).
    FIG. 7 2011 Gold jewelry demand in various countries accounted for global proportion
    Data Source: Thomson Reuters GFMS, WGC
    This Chinese gold jewelry market has also developed rapidly in the "Golden Ten Years", mainly experience Two stages: In the first five or six years, with the opening and living standards of the market, the demand for jewelry of the Chinese people has continued to increase; in the past three or four years, the global financial crisis has increased people's awareness of risk aversion, and the gold preservation function of gold has gained the re -gains. Pay attention to become another consideration for consumers to buy gold jewelry. Therefore, although the price of gold in the past ten years has risen, the sales of gold have been hot, and the purchase of the purchases is endless. In 2011, China's gold jewelry sales were about 330 billion yuan, and the market size could not be underestimated. In the future, there is still huge room for rise in this field. The "Gold Report of the Year of the Tiger in the Tiger" released by the World Gold Association pointed out that in 2009, China's per capita gold jewelry consumption was only 0.26 grams (Figure 8), ranking the lowest level in the world. If the per capita gold consumption level in Mainland China has caught up with India, Hong Kong or Saudi Arabia, the annual demand in the field of gold jewelry will increase at least 100 tons.
    FIG. 8 2009 Consumption of gold jewelry per capita in the world
    Data Source: GFMS, IMF, WGC
    Gold jewelry, domestic brands have become market -led, among which the Hong Kong brands are the mainstream, and they have performed well in the mid -to -high -end and low -end markets. The old names represented by Zhou Dafu and Zhou Shengsheng occupied the mid -to -high -end market, and the rising star, such as Jin Zun, quickly opened up the battlefield in the second and third tier market. Lao Fengxiang, Lao Temple and other brands in the Mainland also stood out for its successful interpretation of Oriental traditional culture.
    The method of pioneering the market for each gold ornament brand can be summarized into three types: one is that the brand directly enters large retail malls and opens counters in a franchise. Open the counter directly. Since the beginning of this year, multiple brands have fully released the previous contraction, intending to quickly open up third- and fourth -tier cities, and enter the consumer groups with growing demand. With the continuous advancement of urbanization, these "small cities" are becoming the main driving force for the growth of gold jewelry.
    3. The ancient and young Chinese gold jewelry market
    In China, "love gold, Tibetan gold" is the long -origin tradition. Gold has represented auspicious since ancient times, and gold is also the symbol of the emperor. Wearing gold ornaments can not only show your identity, but also celebrate the traditional way of celebrating weddings or birthdays. The Chinese attachment to gold has laid a good foundation for the development of the gold jewelry market.
    The golden jewelry operation in China was opened in the mid -1990s, and it was a scope of franchise. In recent years, under the prosperity of the overall market, the gold jewelry industry has developed rapidly. Although in just ten years, it has shown huge vitality and potential, and also shows the unique characteristics and trends of Chinese style.
    Wedding jewelry is the mainstream. In the traditional Chinese culture of thousands of years, gold has always played an important role whether it is a relative or wedding. The golden jewelry symbolizes the auspicious and rich, and the meaning of "Jinyu Liangyuan" is the "standard" when many newcomers get married. The survey showed that more than half of the newcomers said that they would choose gold jewelry when purchasing wedding jewelry.
    This and personality becomes new. The design and craftsmanship of gold jewelry are constantly being new. The product style is no longer limited to the traditional dignified atmosphere. The modern fashion atmosphere is full of wind. Golden jewelry with classical and modern temperament has been favored by more and more Chinese consumers. For example, only gold launched by the World Gold Association in 2007, with its fashionable design, unique creativity and superb craftsmanship, attracted the attention of the majority of young consumer groups. In recent years, with the rise of jewelry customization, gold jewelry has become avant -garde and personality, which has won a considerable part of the favor of young people who pursue self -labels.
    The sales channels are diversified. With the rapid development of the Internet market, e -commerce is becoming a new point for major jewelry companies to compete for the market. The combination of physical stores and online stores not only facilitates consumers to choose and purchase products, but also saves business costs for enterprises. More and more jewelry companies such as Zhou Dafu, Zhou Shengsheng, Liufu Jewelry, etc. have begun to get involved in online marketing, and have initially tasted the benefits brought by this model. The monthly sales of a certain gold pendant of Zhou Dafu's footsteps in its online store reached nearly 1,600 pieces. In the future, with the improvement and maturity of online sales channels, this model will definitely bring generous returns to enterprises.
    The investment preservation demand increases. With the deepening of gold value, the Chinese began to pay attention to investment in all aspects of life. In addition to buying gold bars, gold jewelry with deep connotation and meaning, but also investment value is becoming a more common wealth preservation method for consumers. The unique 24K gold products in the Chinese market are the most preserved choice for gold jewelry investment. In addition, the uniqueness of advanced craftsmanship, exquisite design and personalized customization also adds more collection value and significance to gold jewelry.
    4. In the ascendant, step forward
    In recent years, the social and economic changes caused by reform have been accelerating. In 2011, China's per capita GNI exceeded $ 5,400 (Figure 9). According to this trend, the domestic middle class will continue to grow in the next few years. The disposable income and savings habits of this important group are connected with the rapid urbanization, which may make China's gold demand over the next decade. While leading the steady growth of the national economy, the government has been committed to promoting the healthy development of the gold market. In July 2010, six ministries and commissions including the People's Bank of China issued the "Several Opinions on Promoting the Development of the Gold Market", which clearly proposed to enrich the transaction variety, improve the gold market system, and promote the formation of a multi -level market system.
    FIG. 9 China ’s total national income and per capita gold demand
    Data Source: Townon Reuters gfms, World Bank, WGC
    Double assistance of economic engines and policy support, China's gold market It will continue to maintain a good growth trend for a long time and play an increasingly important role on the international stage. The gold jewelry industry will move towards the direction of brandization and creativity. The international competitiveness of national brands will continue to increase. More and more "Made in China" will land on the international gold market to show the charm of the oriental. With the improvement of the brand, gold jewelry will be more particular about personality, connotation, and design. This change is expected to promote the sales of gold jewelry from the traditional "clarity" to "pricing". The only gold of the World Gold Association has become a pioneer in this area and has achieved good results.
    5. World Gold Association -Promoting market development, shaping the future of gold jewelry
    The World Gold Association is the market development agency of the gold industry, and is committed to playing a leading role in the industry and promoting and maintaining gold. At the same time, based on its own accurate market insights, the development of gold support solutions, services and markets.
    Since the establishment of a office in Beijing in 1992, the World Gold Association has worked closely with the Chinese gold industry. In the past 20 years, the association has assisted the Chinese decision makers to put the pulse for the domestic market and put forward the "Open in China Gold Market in the new period: Related Policy Research and Suggestions" to help the central bank form the basic concept of the opening of the Chinese gold market; introduce their professional research results into it into China, regularly released the "Golden Requirements Trends Report", and cooperated with Thomson Reuters GFMS, Oxford Economic Research Institute and other institutions to publish a series of industry research reports such as "Golden Yearbook" and "Inflation and the Impact of Golden Trends" Provide a lot of in -depth interpretation of the market information and resources for people in the industry. The Association also actively responded to the government's policy of "Tibetan Gold to the People" and cooperated with the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China to launch investment wealth management products such as "ICBC Gold Experts" and "Golden Praise Gold Bar".
    In the field of gold jewelry, the World Gold Association is committed to rebuilding the value of gold as the ultimate choice of jewelry, attracting the new generation of consumers in the future, and creating a new concept and guiding the new world trend. For a long time, the association has been committed to spreading the advanced practice and promotion concept of the international market to China, not only deeply cultivating the traditional gold jewelry field, but also further exploring the frontier of fashion.
    In 2003, the World Gold Association launched the concept of "gold ornaments" K-Gold, and Jewelry companies such as Zhou Dafu, Zhou Shengsheng, Cai Bai and Just Gold jointly created 18K gold jewelry with Chinese characteristics, and will represent the best design level in Italy. The introduction of GOLD series products into China has brought new thinking, new craftsmanship, and new work to the domestic jewelry industry, which has promoted China's gold jewelry in the direction of fashion and modernization, and promoted rapid growth in the 18K gold market.
    In 2004, the World Gold Association joined hands with Shanghai City Jewelry and other companies to launch a blessing wedding gold jewelry, which aims to promote Oriental culture and integrate modern fashion weddings and traditional Chinese wedding concepts, so that young newcomers can enjoy Western modern wedding The passion can also appreciate the profound significance contained in traditional Chinese culture. Since its launch, Fu Fu has won extensive love with its unique and beautiful meaning and exquisite craftsmanship.
    In 2007, in order to comprehensively improve the production process of traditional foot gold products, the World Gold Association proposed the concept of "pure gold boutique", and launched the only gold promotion project, joined hands with the old Fengxiang and old temple gold and other jewelry merchants to use modern marketing methods. Enhance the image of traditional gold jewelry. Only Jin took the lead in the domestic sales method of "pricing", highlighting the processability of gold jewelry, and encouraging processing enterprises to invest in design technology. Once the brand was launched, it quickly received a warm response from the gold jewelry industry and consumers. In just five years, the brand flag of 24K gold jewelry has been established in the industry, becoming a choice of jewelry with both value preservation and rich emotional connotation. Only gold guides people to gradually shift from the value of only 24K gold to the more expected to design fashion, creativity, and superb craftsmanship, thereby further promoting the gold jewelry industry to high -end. In 2011, only Jin achieved a sales performance of more than 36 tons and showed a good growth trend.
    In 2012, China Gold Group Gold Jewelry Co., Ltd. and the World Gold Association cooperated to launch the "Zhen Rujin" boutique jewelry brand. The brand integrates fashion design and classic craftsmanship, and integrates the world's top design concept with the unique personality and characteristics of Chinese women, so that it conforms to the Chinese aesthetic concept, and can better reflect the charm of modern Chinese women.
    While promoting the gold decoration brand, the World Gold Association also pays attention to the discovery and cultivation of industry new forces. In the past few years, the Association has co -organized three "golden imagination" (China) gold jewelry design contests with South Age's Angrua Aushan Emperor Gold Co., Ltd. "Golden Thinking" has always been known as the Oscar award of the gold jewelry design industry. The purpose is to encourage "Chinese design" and "Chinese creation" to promote the development and progress of gold jewelry design and gold jewelry processing process, and try to try to try to try to try to try to try it. The design of bold and avant -garde display gold jewelry is transformed into commercial gold jewelry, which enriches China's gold jewelry market.
    In in the future, in addition to the promotion of gold jewelry and gold investment products, the World Gold Association will continue to contribute to the development of China's gold market, build a bridge between the domestic and international gold markets, and promote the sustainable development and prosperity of the domestic market.

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